The purpose of LURNZ is to empirically investigate the potential impacts of policies designed to alter land use decisions.
Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) is a computer model that simulates land-use change at a fine spatial scale over the whole country. The model employs historical relationships between land-use and profitability as well as cross-sectional variation in land attributes to produce dynamic paths of rural land-use change and maps of rural land-use with an annual time step.
It is a dynamic partial equilibrium model that simulates changes in private rural land use over time and space. LURNZ focuses on four key land uses – dairy, sheep/beef, forestry and scrub.
LURNZ enables policy makers to empirically investigate and compare the potential impacts of various environmental policies that may affect land-use decisions. It can simulate any policy that can be expressed as a restriction on land use or a change in the effective price for a commodity produced from an existing land use. Its greenhouse gas module allows simulation of climate mitigation policies.
| Latest Version | v2 beta |
|---|---|
| State of Development | Open Beta |
| Current Development Activity | Ongoing. Working towards release of v2 beta mid 2012. |
| Outcome Areas | Economic, Social |
|---|---|
| Management Domains | Land |
| Subdomains | Crop/Farm Systems |
| Intended End Users | Researchers |
| Spatial Resolutions | 10-100m, 100-500m |
| Spatial Extents | National |
| Spatial Dimensions | 2D |
| Temporal Resolutions | Years |
| Temporal Extents | Years, Decades |
| Steady State or Dynamic | Unknown |
| Level of Integration | Economic, Environmental, Social |
| Key Input Data | Micro-economic data, Land Use, Land Cover Carbon price, commodity prices, carbon sequestration tables |
|---|---|
| Input Data Formats | Test File(s) |
| Key Output Data | Micro-economic data, Land Use, Land Cover land use trends, GHG emmissions |
| Output Data Formats | Animations/video |
| Open/Closed Source | Open Source |
|---|---|
| Licence Type | Unknown |
| Operating Systems | MS Windows |
|---|---|
| Software Needed | Matlab, Excel |
| User Interface | Other (please specify) Currently script based interface. |
| Ease of Use | Easy Running LURNZ requires the user to edit values in a Matlab script. The values are clearly set out and labeled. No need to understand Matlab code is required. |
| Use in Policy Process | Plan (Policy Formulation), Check (Policy Evaluation) |
| Documentation | LURNZ Code: https://motu.nz/our-work/environment-and-resources/lurnz/lurnz-overview/lurnz-code/ There is a range of documentation available going back to 2004. Underlying research is documented, see Motu's website (https://motu.nz/our-work/environment-and-resources/lurnz/) LURNZ v1 beta release includes a user manual. This gives instructions for installation and running LURNZ. |
| Support | Email current developer at Motu. |
| Users Forum | Email current developer at Motu. |
| Programming Language | Matlab |
|---|---|
| Methods included for calibration and validation | Underlying research is documented, see Motu's website. (http://www.motu.org.nz/research/group/land_use_in_rural_new_zealand_model) |
| Methods included for managing uncertainty | No methods currently inbuilt. We recommend running the model multiple times and comparing output across runs. |
| Analytical Techniques | Input/output, GIS, Spatial Dynamics |
| Model Structure |
LURNZ has been designed in modules. There are currently four modules. Each module carries out a specific piece of analysis and can be run separately (although some modules require inputs from other modules). |
| Keywords | land use, greenhouse gas, emissions trading, rural, dairy, sheep/beef, policy |
| Linkages to other Models | |
| Links | LURNZ Overview - https://motu.nz/our-work/environment-and-resources/lurnz/lurnz-overview/ Motu’s Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model at work: Simulation results - https://motu.nz/our-work/environment-and-resources/lurnz/lurnz-overview/lurnz-at-work-simulation-results/ Documentation of Motu’s Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model - https://motu.nz/our-work/environment-and-resources/lurnz/lurnz-overview/lurnz-documentation/
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| Key References | Simon Anastasiadis, Suzi Kerr, Wei Zhang, Corey Allan and William Power (2014): Land Use in Rural New Zealand: Spatial Land Use, Land-use Change, and Model Validation. Motu Working Paper 14-07 Levente Timar and Suzi Kerr (2014): Land-use Intensity and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the LURNZ Model, Motu Working Paper 14-03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research
Kerr, Suzi, and Alex Olssen. 2012. "Gradual Land-use Change in New Zealand: Results from a Dynamic Econometric Model", Motu Working Paper 12-06, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, Wellington. Kerr, Suzi, Wei Zhang and William Power. 2010. "Short Term Effects of Moderate Carbon Prices on Land Use in the New Zealand Emissions Trading System: LURNZ-Climate Land Use Change Simulations", draft paper. Kerr, Suzi; Levente Timar and Wei Zhang. 2010. "Emissions Trading for Forestry and Agriculture: Policy Design and Integrated Simulations in New Zealand," poster at the Analysis, Integration and Modelling of Earth Systems Open Science Conference, Edinburgh, UK. Todd, Maribeth and Suzi Kerr. 2009. "How Does Changing Land Cover and Land Use in New Zealand relate to Land Use Capability and Slope?" Motu Working Paper 09-17. Kerr, Suzi and Wei Zhang. 2009. "Allocation of New Zealand Units within Agriculture in the New Zealand Emissions Trading System," Motu Working Paper 09-16. Hendy, Joanna and Suzi Kerr. 2007. "Impacts on the pastoral sector from emissions charges on agriculture gases: analysis from the model Land Use in Rural New Zealand version 1: climate," Motu manuscript. Hendy, Joanna; Suzi Kerr and Troy Baisden. 2007. "The Land Use in Rural New Zealand Model Version 1 (LURNZv1): Model Description," Motu Working Paper 07-07. Hendy, Joanna; Suzi Kerr and Troy Baisden. 2006. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions Charges and Credits on Agricultural Land: What Can a Model Tell Us? Motu Working Paper 06-04. Hendy, Joanna and Suzi Kerr. 2006. "Land-Use Intensity Module: Land Use in Rural New Zealand Version 1," Motu Working Paper 06-05. Hendy, Joanna and Suzi Kerr. 2005. "Greenhouse Gas Emission Factor Module: Land Use in Rural New Zealand - Climate Version 1," Motu Working Paper 05-10. Kerr, Suzi; Shuguang, Liu, Alexander, Pfaff and Flint Hughes. 2003. "Carbon Dynamics and Land-Use Choices: Building a Regional-Scale Multidisciplinary Model," The Journal of Environmental Management, 69:1, pp. 25-37. |
The Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model was developed by researchers at Motu and is used in this study in conjunction with the CLUES model, developed by NIWA, AgResearch and others.
This study undertakes simulations using the integrated Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model to analyse the effect of various New Zealand emissions trading scheme (ETS) scenarios on land-use, emissions, and output in a temporally and spatially explicit manner.