Description

Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) is a computer model that simulates land-use change at a fine spatial scale over the whole country. The model employs historical relationships between land-use and profitability as well as cross-sectional variation in land attributes to produce dynamic paths of rural land-use change and maps of rural land-use with an annual time step. LURNZ enables policy makers to empirically investigate and compare the potential impacts of various environmental policies that may affect land-use decisions. It can simulate any policy that can be expressed as a restriction on land use or a change in the effective price for a commodity produced from an existing land use. Its greenhouse gas module allows simulation of climate mitigation policies.

Purpose

The purpose of LURNZ is to empirically investigate the potential impacts of policies designed to alter land use decisions.

Latest Version v2 beta
State of Development Open Beta
Current Development Activity Ongoing. Working towards release of v2 beta mid 2012.

Development Contact

Suzi Kerr
suzi.kerr@motu.org.nz
+64 4 939 4250
Motu Economic and Public Policy Research
Level 1, 97 Cuba Street, PO Box 24390 Wellington 6142 New Zealand

Main Developers

  • Motu Economic and Public Policy Research (MOTU)

Scope

Outcome Areas Economic, Social
Management Domains Land
Subdomains Crop/Farm Systems
Intended End Users Researchers
Spatial Resolutions 10-100m, 100-500m
Spatial Extents National
Spatial Dimensions 2D
Temporal Resolutions Years
Temporal Extents Years, Decades
Steady State or Dynamic Unknown
Level of Integration Economic, Environmental, Social

Input & Output Data

Key Input Data Micro-economic data, Land Use, Land Cover wealth effect
Input Data Formats Test File(s)
Key Output Data Micro-economic data, Land Use, Land Cover
Output Data Formats Animations/video

Accessibility

Open/Closed Source Open Source
Licence Type Unknown

User Information

Operating Systems MS Windows
Software Needed Matlab, Excel
User Interface Other (please specify) Currently script based interface.
Ease of Use Easy Running LURNZ requires the user to edit values in a Matlab script. The values are clearly set out and labeled. No need to understand Matlab code is required.
Use in Policy Process Plan (Policy Formulation), Check (Policy Evaluation)
Documentation

There is a range of documentation available going back to 2004. Underlying research is documented, see Motu's website (http://www.motu.org.nz/research/group/land_use_in_rural_new_zealand_model)

LURNZ v1 beta release includes a user manual. This gives instructions for installation and running LURNZ.

Support Email current developer at Motu.
Users Forum Email current developer at Motu.

Technical Considerations

Programming Language Matlab
Methods included for calibration and validation Underlying research is documented, see Motu's website. (http://www.motu.org.nz/research/group/land_use_in_rural_new_zealand_model)
Methods included for managing uncertainty No methods currently inbuilt. We recommend running the model multiple times and comparing output across runs.
Analytical Techniques Input/output, GIS, Spatial Dynamics
Model Structure

lurnz policy scenarios

LURNZ has been designed in modules. There are currently four modules. Each module carries out a specific piece of analysis and can be run separately (although some modules require inputs from other modules). The code for each module has been arranged in three scripts. There are generally: load inputs; do analysis; and save output.

Keywords land use, greenhouse gas, emissions trading, rural, dairy, sheep/beef, policy
Linkages to other Models
Links

LURNZ Overview - www.motu.org.nz/research/group/land_use_in_rural_new_zealand_model

Motu’s Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model at work: Simulation results - http://www.motu.org.nz/research/detail/lurnz_simulation_results

Documentation of Motu’s Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model -  http://www.motu.org.nz/research/detail/documentation_of_motus_lurnz_model

How does Changing Land Cover and Land Use in New Zealand relate to Land Use Capability and Slope? - http://www.motu.org.nz/publications/detail/how_does_changing_land_cover

Key References

Kerr, Suzi, and Alex Olssen. 2012. "Gradual Land-use Change in New Zealand: Results from a Dynamic Econometric Model", Motu Working Paper 12-06, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, Wellington.

Kerr, Suzi, Wei Zhang and William Power. 2010. "Short Term Effects of Moderate Carbon Prices on Land Use in the New Zealand Emissions Trading System: LURNZ-Climate Land Use Change Simulations", draft paper.

Kerr, Suzi; Levente Timar and Wei Zhang. 2010. "Emissions Trading for Forestry and Agriculture: Policy Design and Integrated Simulations in New Zealand," poster at the Analysis, Integration and Modelling of Earth Systems Open Science Conference, Edinburgh, UK.

Todd, Maribeth and Suzi Kerr. 2009. "How Does Changing Land Cover and Land Use in New Zealand relate to Land Use Capability and Slope?" Motu Working Paper 09-17.

Kerr, Suzi and Wei Zhang. 2009. "Allocation of New Zealand Units within Agriculture in the New Zealand Emissions Trading System," Motu Working Paper 09-16.

Hendy, Joanna and Suzi Kerr. 2007. "Impacts on the pastoral sector from emissions charges on agriculture gases: analysis from the model Land Use in Rural New Zealand version 1: climate," Motu manuscript.

Hendy, Joanna; Suzi Kerr and Troy Baisden. 2007. "The Land Use in Rural New Zealand Model Version 1 (LURNZv1): Model Description," Motu Working Paper 07-07.

Hendy, Joanna; Suzi Kerr and Troy Baisden. 2006. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions Charges and Credits on Agricultural Land: What Can a Model Tell Us? Motu Working Paper 06-04.

Hendy, Joanna and Suzi Kerr. 2006. "Land-Use Intensity Module: Land Use in Rural New Zealand Version 1," Motu Working Paper 06-05.

Hendy, Joanna and Suzi Kerr. 2005. "Greenhouse Gas Emission Factor Module: Land Use in Rural New Zealand - Climate Version 1," Motu Working Paper 05-10.

Kerr, Suzi; Shuguang, Liu, Alexander, Pfaff and Flint Hughes. 2003. "Carbon Dynamics and Land-Use Choices: Building a Regional-Scale Multidisciplinary Model," The Journal of Environmental Management, 69:1, pp. 25-37.

Associated Case Studies