Scenario Planning

An assessment method / framework

Purpose

Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning tool that organisations can use to assist decision making and in developing flexible long-term plans.

Description

Scenario planning or thinking has an established and successful heritage, with deep roots in the development of decision-making. Carefully managed scenario building process can help organisations improve their decision-making processes, overcome problems of lock-in on business-as-usual thinking and become effective observors of change.

A useful typology of scenarios presents contrasts between:

  • the predictive (asking what will happen, short term),
  • the explorative (asking what can happen, what is possible, longer term), and
  • the normative (how can a vision or target be reached?).

It is important to be clear that scenarios are not predictions, nor desired visions. They are simply alternative stories of how the future might unfold: explorations that gather information about divergent trends and potential developments into new narratives about how these parts of the future might work together.

Jointly crafting scenarios, as images of the future, allow exploration of both how elements of the future may be the same as today and where they may significantly change in areas of technological, social, economic, environmental and other developments. 

It may not be more accurate about guessing the future in detail, but conversations will still help us make better decisions about the future, not least by alerting us in advance of more – and less – desirable directions. Scenarios help us to take account of different perspectives on issues and opportunities. One person or institution alone does not cause changes in society. 

Models, Quantitative and Qualitative scenarios and stories create multiple views of the future helps us to understand how different individual and joint decisions, actions, and events can lead to alternative futures. We are not trying to determine what is going to happen; we are trying to understand what might happen in the longer term.

Unlike forecasting, scenario planning embraces uncertainty. Where forecasts often assume that the world of tomorrow is a trend-projection of the world of today, scenarios can allow for sudden shifts in the environment.  Scenario planning is based on four assumptions:

  1. The future is unlike the past, and is significantly shaped by human choice and action. 
  2. The future cannot be foreseen, but exploring the future can inform present decisions.
  3. There are many possible futures; scenarios therefore map within a ‘possibility space’.
  4. Scenario development involves both rational analysis and creative thinking.

Good scenarios help us understand how key drivers, such as governance systems and resource availability, might interact and affect the future weight and momentum of change.  They sit between quantitative analysis that models trends and speculative, anecdotal approaches of telling stories about the imagined future.

Scenario planning differs from contingency planning, sensitivity analysis and computer simulations.

Contingency planning is a "What if" tool, that only takes into account one uncertainty. However, scenario planning considers combinations of uncertainties in each scenario. Planners also try to select especially plausible but uncomfortable combinations of social developments.

Sensitivity analysis analyzes changes in one variable only, which is useful for simple changes, while scenario planning tries to expose policy makers to significant interactions of major variables.

While scenario planning can benefit from computer simulations, scenario planning is less formalized, and can be used to make plans for qualitative patterns that show up in a wide variety of simulated events.

State of Development Unknown

Development Contact

Scope

Outcome Areas Economic, Environmental, Social, Cultural
Management Domains General
Steady State or Dynamic Unknown

Input & Output Data

Accessibility

Open/Closed Source Please Select

User Information

User Interface Please Select
Ease of Use Please Select

Technical Considerations

Keywords scenario planning, futures thinking,
Linkages to other Models
Key References

A Sustainable Energy Future for New Zealand by 2050: A Business View. NZ Business Council for Sustainable Development

Scenarios using a computable general equilibrium model of the New Zealand economy Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, New Zealand. Published: October 2009 – Economic Impacts of Immigration Working Paper Series

Associated Case Studies

Scenarios - Four NZ Futures

Four New Zealand scenarios are presented which range from an increasingly insular society that finds little benefit in diversity other than separating ‘winners and losers’ to one where multi-cultural aspects are heralded as a cornerstone of the nation’s identity.

 

Other Key Case Studies

Waikato Scenarios

http://www.creatingfutures.org.nz/archive/scenarios/waikato-scenarios/

 

Future currents: Electricity scenarios for New Zealand 2005-2050 - Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, New Zealand Government.  Published 2005

http://www.pce.parliament.nz/publications/all-publications/future-currents-electricity-scenarios-for-new-zealand-2005-2050

 

Future Maker or Future Taker: Scenarios for Tourism - What will the world look like in 2050 and how will it shape the future of tourism in New Zealand?  The research looks at global trends and influences such as market shifts, international demographics and environmental changes. http://www.tourism2050.com/